BB52: The Graph is a Lie

For the past four and a half years, the graph has hovered around that 30,000 mark; it is, for all intents and purposes, a plateau. But everything must come to an end sooner or later and that is what this blog banter is about.

What's on the other side of that plateau? 

Is there any path for CCP to follow to raise those numbers upwards for a sustained period, or is EVE going to enter a decline to lower logged in numbers from this point? How soon will we see an end to this plateau? Months? Years? Or will you argue that 'never' is a possibility? Or you can look at the root causes of the plateau and tackle the question if it could have been avoided or shortened if CCP had taken different actions in the past.


Out here in the real world a significant part of my professional career is looking at huge piles of data, charts, findings, statistics and whatnot - and then pulling the truth out of them. In many cases millions of dollars are riding on my ability to find the nugget of truth, the sliver of hope, the endless opportunities buried within statistics and data. And I happen to be very, very good at it.

I've been seeing this chart bantered about for a long time now and I can tell you straight up - this chart is bullshit. It is BS of the highest order and flies fully in the face of correlation and causation. It is an island of data in an empty sea of missing, vital, and more important information that we simply do not have.

As the mere existence of this banter proves, many people look at this evil chart and draw the natural - but most likely erroneous - correlation that Eve has hit a plateau. This is not because they are stupid, but simply because data doesn't exist in a vacuum. They then draw the natural cause from this data and determine that Eve must be dying, or at the very least slowing its growth. And while there remains the possibility that this is true, there remains a vast and undetermined possibility that the opposite is actually true. In fact, the opposite is much more likely to be true.

This chart shows server usage over time. Are they the same users? Or different users? This is missing data number one and it is an extremely important piece of information. In my experience running Stay Frosty, I've seen a tremendous amount of long-term subs who haven't played Eve in a long, long time. We have several young players that have been subbed since 2007, but haven't logged in much since then. This chart doesn't account for returning players because they are buried within it. What is the rate of long-term subs returning to activity? Is it on the rise?

Eve is over a decade old, few people play any game for ten years!! And to expect them to do so is rather strange. So turn-over is another vital piece of missing information buried within this single data point. Turn-over is vital and depicts "trend" in a way that few other data points can do. What exactly is the rate of deactivated subs versus new subs? I dunno. It might very well be rather staggering.  Again, based on what I've seen in my travels, there sure are an awful lot of 2013 and 2014 pilots out in space.

I could go on and on. The point being that much like this example, it is rather easy to get caught up in single point data and jump to erroneous conclusions. We all do it. But it is dangerous to flirt with ignorance.

There can be no doubt however that Eve is in transition. As I said before, it is over a decade old now and the following year or so is going to be critical for its long-term stability or growth. [ As an aside, let us not be so quick to poo-poo the strength to be found in stability. That chart shows a tremendous power in Eve's ability to be stable over time. And that is an extremely positive thing. ]  But yes, Eve is in a transitional period. Will it continue to attract new players and retain older players? Will it continue to do so at a reasonable rate?

Eve is never going to be WoW, or draw the numbers of Candy Crush. But it also doesn't even need to do that. It has existed for over a decade already and, if anything, that evil chart shows it has the strength built in to survive and flourish for another decade at least.

Eve is better now than it has ever been. That message needs to be shouted from the rooftops. How and why and when it continues to grow, expand, and evolve remains a mystery to us all. Based on what we've seen over the past two years, the foundation has been laid for continued success. Now is the time for CCP to step up to the plate and show the world that Eve is here to stay.

Plateau? Maybe. Anything is possible. But this chart doesn't prove anything one way or the other.



For more Banters, please visit the Blog Banter #52 page.

Engagement

This post has some relation to this post over on MinerBumping.com, so you might want to go read it first. Then come back.

Engagement is the key to success for Eve Online. I've always believed that and have been preaching it from this pulpit for almost five years now. Getting new players engaged is the critical piece of long-term success for Eve. This is not a surprise.

Since last May I've been hard at work building an engagement system in Eve, most commonly referred to as a Corporation. Since May over 200 pilots have responded and joined Stay Frosty. Applications are open and anyone can join. We have no rules about staying and some people come and go freely. Right now we are hovering at the 170 member mark and hope to reach about 200 in the next few months. That has always been our goal.

Running a large corporation is a lot different than running a smaller corporation, in many ways. But one trend that I've noticed involves engagement. Over 90% of the pilots that leave Stay Frosty never even bothered to register on our forums. Which means they missed out on an extremely vibrant, helpful and engaging part of being in our Corporation. It also means they never registered for Comms, since those two things are tied together.

So for a Corporation whose entire purpose is engagement, we are missing out on engaging a small percentage of those pilots coming to us to be engaged. Make sense? I mean, in the overall picture, we are talking about a very small percentage of players - not many people leave Stay Frosty. But it is something that I've noticed.

In the larger picture, if WE are having issues engaging pilots, imagine what Eve must be experiencing on the larger front. Players coming to play with SF are certainly not "normal" players, so I can only assume even worse retention numbers for Eve as a whole.

This is, as I've said before, one of the biggest challenges Eve faces moving forward. And, I believe, it is critical for its long-term success. Something I am rather keenly interested in. As I'd like to continue playing Eve for a long-time to come.

All I can do is continue to try to engage players from my small corner of the Universe. And in 2014 I would like to dedicate myself to upping my own game in this regard. More events, more posts, more people joining Stay Frosty, more engagement of our victims, more of more. Whatever I can personally do to help engage a larger percentage of players, to show them the true nature of Eve, I will try to do.

Isolation is not engagement. Community is. Whatever sense of community helps you stay engaged, a blog, a corp, an alliance, whatever it is, eve is full of it. It is a rather vibrant and amazing place when you jump in. But playing alone on your corner of the sandbox is nothing more than a recipe for boredom and eventually boredom leads to failure.

I've seen it over and over again.

I'll continue to do my part. But I'm only one wittle dood.

A Look Ahead to 2014

Several of my usual "predictors" for the coming year are not available to me this time around. The CSM has been especially quiet about their goings-on and the summit minutes have yet to be released. The CSM always helps to keep a finger on what is going on in CCP and where we might be headed.

I've also been rather busy building an awesome Corporation over the past eight months, so my own Eve time has been taken up rather significantly focusing on that aspect of the game. So I enter 2014 a tad cut-off from the usual, usual. This doesn't mean I am totally adrift however, I'm still active on Twitter, still read the same amount of Blogs, and even sometimes wander over to the forums, or Reddit, etc. And I still maintain my own contacts throughout the Eve community.

Eve faces several challenges moving forward. Anyone who looks at a sov map of Null Sec can tell you that we are entering some new territory when it comes to the "big game" in Eve. As a dedicated low sec adventurer these days, my personal interest in the politics of Null has wained over the years. But I worry for Eve. A static, unified, and boring Null Sec isn't good for anyone. Especially Eve.

I get a lot of mileage here on the blog making fun of Faction Warfare and WCS and... well, everything else. In my humble opinion there is no doubt that the basic FW mechanic is in need of serious ( and yet minor ) overhauling. FW has brought life to Low Sec and in that way it has succeeded beyond belief, turning a back-water pirate vs pirate land into a multi-faceted extremely active arena. Given the current status of Null, there can be no doubt that Low Sec is the only choice when it comes to PvP in Eve these days, and we have FW, in large part, to thank for that.

It is still broken. And whatever remedy CCP eventually settles on needs to address both sides of the coin. Personally I'd rather it stay the way it is than see it ruined, so we must tread lightly in recommending any possible remedies. I think some slight tweaks to the basic mechanic would be enough to re-balance things. And banning WCS.

Unlike previous years Eve doesn't face any obviously glaring places in which significant work needs to be done. This is a good sign. It means that Eve is ripe for NEW content. We've been hinted at heavily that this new content may come in the form of brand new space, player-created gates, and other player-centric opportunities. On the surface this sounds rather promising. The danger, as always, is in delivering new opportunities while not ignoring old ones. And then integrating new content properly into the existing plan.

I'd like to see more new ships, the recent introduction of new SOE ships needs to continue into other ignored factions. I'd like to see modular Frigates introduced, perhaps not a direct T3 descendant, but a modular based system to build your own 'custom' frigates. I think this idea is rather exciting. And is yet another way to give more options to the player base.

We need Command Ship models that are not simply re-skins of existing hulls. We need more control of our own space in Low Sec, without "sov" per se, but there should be a mechanical benefit to controlling certain areas of space.

Whatever comes in 2014 I must say that I trust CCP more now than at any other time since I stared playing Eve. The dust of Incarna is well behind us now and the last two years have seen significant improvement in virtually every aspect of Eve.

Eve is insanely better now.

And if I have any wish for 2014 that I'd hang my hat on, it would be simply that it continue to kick serious ass.

Runners & Cloakers

Last night, as I was finishing up recording an episode of Cap Stable (available soon!), I fired off an impromptu rant regarding the current state of risk-adverse runners and cloakers posing as Eve players.

It went something like this:

The idea of "risk" in Eve is a false priesthood that has been given validity by the meek and weak. There is NO risk in Eve. There is only danger and reward. The higher the danger the greater the reward. The lower the danger the lower the reward. This is how it is and how it should always be. More importantly however is this, danger is where memories are made!

I've been playing Eve for over five years now and I can tell you story after story after story about my own adventures, failures, derps and escapades. What none of those stories will feature is "nothing". I don't have one story or memory about hours of doing nothing in Eve. Oh sure, I've done more than my fair share of nothing, but I don't remember any of it. Its gone. Poof. Forgotten. Cause it is boring, dull and forgettable. We all have tasks we need to accomplish, even die-hard gentlemen pirates, but boring is death.

The other day Mister Marram of the Tuskers entered a system only to discover a Titan on scan. He took a huge risk in finding it, bookmarking it and waiting while forces formed to bring it down. The result was a dead Avatar.

We don't all have to bring down a Titan to make memories. But I will ask you this. What are YOU doing that is worth the time you are doing it? Your time is extremely valuable, all of us only have so much of it to spend - are you spending yours properly? This has nothing to do with your chosen play-style, play the game any way you want. But spend your time taking risks, pushing the envelope, exploring the edges, pushing those boundaries, breaking new ground, delivering the goods, building better than anything has been built before, standing up to injustice, seeking revenge... whatever it is that drives you. Do it like you own it.

There is NO risk in Eve. You will be perfectly fine. Go out there and FAIL HARD. Don't be afraid to suck ass, to be hot-dropped, to get ganked, to be spied upon, AWOX'd, murdered, stolen, forced to dock, killed on gate, derped, or otherwise tossed and turned. For therein lies the tale. And, quite possibly, the greatest tale of success you will ever tell. After all, you might just win.

Luke didn't listen to Uncle Owen and become a moisture farmer! Indiana Jones wasn't content to simply teach classes and work on his tenure! Adventures begin by taking risks, by stepping into the unknown. And, lucky us, Eve isn't even real. It is a gosh darn pixel based choose-our-own-adventure game!! Woot!

Then again, if you do tackle a Carrier with your Devoter, I recommend having the proper amount of back-up in place. You might even want to check the pilot's name and corp before doing something truly stoopid. Just sayin'.

Thing is, that is a story I'll remember for as long as I play Eve.